Matchday 5 of the Champions League league phase is here, and the stakes are rising. The top-eight race is tight, the playoff places are up for grabs, and several big clubs need a result to stay on course. We have picked out the best value bets from the standout fixtures, based on form, xG numbers and the betting market.

The headline game is Arsenal against Borussia Dortmund. The Gunners are heavy favourites at home, and the supercomputer gives them a 70 per cent chance of winning. But Dortmund are no pushovers, and their attack has caused problems for every team they have faced. The value here may be in the goals market rather than the result.

Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: Goals, Not the Result

Arsenal's price to win is short, and there is little value in backing the favourite at those odds. Instead, look at the goals markets. Both teams score in most of their matches, and Dortmund's attacking style means this game should be open. Over 2.5 goals looks a fair bet, and both teams to score is worth considering too.

For a bigger price, consider Arsenal to win and both teams to score. The Gunners' defence is strong, but Dortmund have the quality to find the net, and the combination pays far better than a straight home win.

Liverpool at Club Brugge: Back the Reds to Bounce Back

Liverpool lost on Matchday 4 and need a result in Belgium. Club Brugge are a dangerous side, and they are projected to finish in the top eight, so this is not an easy away trip. But Liverpool's underlying numbers remain strong, and their price to win is longer than it should be after one bad result.

The value here is on Liverpool to win, or on Liverpool to win and both teams to score. The Reds have the quality to bounce back, and the market has overreacted to a single defeat. If you want a safer option, Liverpool draw no bet gives you your money back if the game ends level.

Manchester City at Napoli: The Away Win

Manchester City travel to Napoli as favourites, and the supercomputer gives them a 77 per cent chance of winning. That is a strong number, and City's price reflects it, but the value is still there because City's attack is in superb form. Haaland has five goals in four matches, and Napoli's defence has looked vulnerable against top opposition.

Consider Haaland to score at any time. He has scored in three of City's four Champions League matches, and his price to find the net is usually generous. For a bigger return, Haaland to score two or more goals is a fun option, though it is a long shot.

The Best Value Bet of Matchday 5

Our best value pick is a combination: Arsenal to win and both teams to score, combined with Liverpool to win. Both teams are strong, both have something to prove, and the combined price is far better than backing either on its own. Keep the stake small, as always, and remember that the Champions League is the hardest competition to predict in football.

The other bet to watch is on the debutants. Como are available at a long price to beat their next opponent, and their form suggests they are better than the odds imply. A small stake on the underdog is the kind of bet that makes Matchday 5 worth watching.

Bankroll Rules for Matchday 5

Whatever bets you place on Matchday 5, the bankroll rules are the same as always. Never stake more than 2 per cent of your bankroll on a single bet, and never chase a loss by doubling your stake on the next game. The Champions League is the hardest competition to predict in football, and even the best analysis can be undone by a single moment.

Keep a record of your bets, including the odds, the stake and the result. Over time, that record will tell you which markets you are good at and which ones you should avoid. The bettors who make money in the long run are not the ones who pick the most winners. They are the ones who manage their money best and only bet when the price is wrong.