Four matches, three goals, one win. Jürgen Klopp’s first international window as Germany head coach ended with a goalless night in Thessaloniki on 4 October, a Jonathan Burkardt finish chalked off for handball in the build-up, and a Nations League table that has Germany third in Group A2 on five points, three behind the Netherlands and Greece.

The winners and losers from the first four Klopp matches picked through who helped their cause and who did not, but the scoreboard summary is blunt enough: two meetings with a Greece side ranked 41st in the world produced 180 minutes without a German goal.

There is no Germany fixture now until Serbia in Belgrade on 13 November, so the next five weeks belong to the clubs, and that is where Klopp’s wide trawl of the talent pool gets tested. It is also where the odds conversation moves for supporters who like to back a hunch with a price. Anyone new to comparing those prices will find Freebets.com’s guide on how to use BetFinder a useful starting point, with one caveat worth knowing up front: the tool covers club football, including the Bundesliga and the Premier League, but the Nations League is not on its list of competitions.

Klopp called up 44 players across the window and said afterwards that the exercise was a one off. He was not shy about what he saw. “Everyone showed what they’re made of; everyone earned their place,” he said after the draw in Greece, adding elsewhere that “these guys are brimming with talent.”

Some of that talent now has very visible stages. Tom Bischof scored in the win over Serbia in Munich, the only victory of the four, and Bayern Munich host RB Leipzig on Saturday 17 October at 5.30pm UK time. Derry Scherhant started in Thessaloniki, had a curled effort saved and then sent a shot inches wide just before half time; his Freiburg side visit Bayer Leverkusen the following afternoon. Eintracht Frankfurt against 1. FC Köln opens the matchday on Friday night.

For a Germany follower, those games carry a second layer. Every start and every goal in the next three Bundesliga rounds is a line on the shortlist Klopp will name for November.

The maths is unforgiving. Bundesliga.com’s breakdown of the qualification scenarios shows that two wins, in Belgrade and then against the Netherlands in Berlin on 16 November, would take Germany to 11 points. That alone guarantees nothing, because the Dutch host Greece and Greece then welcome a Serbia side still without a point. Germany already lose the head-to-head with Greece, so a three-way tie on points would come down to goal difference in the games between those sides. The top two go through to the quarter-finals in March.

Put simply, a single goal in Berlin could be the difference between a knockout tie and a relegation scrap. That is the sort of fine margin that makes supporters pay attention to prices long before kick-off.